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OpenAI: Growth has stalled, Misses Key Revenue and User Targets

Summary

  • Missed Targets:
    • Failed to hit an internal goal of 1 billion weekly active users (WAU) for ChatGPT by the end of 2025. It came close but hasn't publicly announced the milestone, which has worried some investors.
    • Missed its full-year 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT, partly because Google's Gemini gained significant market share late in the year.
    • Missed multiple monthly revenue targets in early 2026, especially after losing ground to Anthropic in coding tools and enterprise deals. Subscriber churn/defection rates have also been an issue

Forget Revenue ---- who cares ---- but Growth at OpenAI/ChatGPT has stalled. Thats more than slightly interesting: a healthy correction in the AI race, not a collapse. It’s bullish for Google and traditional search in the near term, mildly relieving for SEOs, and a PR/execution hit for Altman/OpenAI.

Indictment on Sam Altman

  • The case against: Massive $600B+ future compute bets locked in while revenue/user goals slip. Internal pushback from CFO Sarah Friar on spending and IPO readiness. Altman’s history of bold promises (AGI timelines, trillion-dollar valuations, consumer devices) now looks riskier when execution wobbles.
  • Counterpoint: He’s still delivered insane growth from near-zero, attracted huge funding, and kept OpenAI dominant overall. The joint statement with Friar pushed back hard, calling the rift “ridiculous.” Many in tech admire the ambition; missing internal targets in a hyper-competitive field isn’t fatal, especially with GPT-5.5 and Codex doing well.
  • Net vibe: It makes him look more human/vulnerable than infallible genius. IPO scrutiny will intensify — investors will grill the unit economics harder. “Dickhead” is subjective, but the narrative of “Sam’s spending spree meets reality” is definitely gaining traction.
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